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carbon assessment." ] }, "scenario": { "availability_pct": 100.0, "capacity_factor_pct": 24.0, "capacity_mw": 100.0, "capex_per_kw": 950.0, "capture_capex_per_kw": 0.0, "capture_om_per_t": 0.0, "capture_pct": 0.0, "capture_penalty_pct": 0.0, "carbon_escalation_pct": 0.0, "carbon_price_per_t": 50.0, "commission_year": 2027, "construction_years": 1, "currency": "USD", "curtailment_pct": 2.0, "decommission_pct": 3.0, "degradation_pct": 0.5, "discount_rate_pct": 7.0, "emissions_t_per_mwh": 0.0, "fixed_om_per_kw_year": 16.0, "fuel_escalation_pct": 0.0, "fuel_price_per_mwh_th": 0.0, "heat_rate": 0.0, "life_years": 30, "name": "Solar reference", "om_escalation_pct": 0.0, "price_year": 2026, "provenance": "Synthetic demonstration assumptions; not market estimates.", "region": "Illustrative region", "salvage_pct": 0.0, "storage_capex_per_kwh": 200.0, "storage_cycles_per_year": 300.0, "storage_efficiency_pct": 88.0, "storage_life_years": 12, "storage_mwh": 0.0, "storage_om_pct": 1.5, "technology": "Solar PV", "variable_om_per_mwh": 0.0 }, "sensitivity": { "baseline": 50.019279879472116, "drivers": [ { "field": "capacity_factor_pct", "high_input": 28.799999999999997, "high_result": 41.68273323289343, "low_input": 19.200000000000003, "low_result": 62.52409984934013, "swing": 20.8413666164467 }, { "field": "capex_per_kw", "high_input": 1140.0, "high_result": 58.39347494674473, "low_input": 760.0, "low_result": 41.64508481219949, "swing": 16.74839013454524 }, { "field": "discount_rate_pct", "high_input": 8.4, "high_result": 56.40589951505323, "low_input": 5.6000000000000005, "low_result": 44.06985441458501, "swing": 12.336045100468219 }, { "field": "construction_years", "high_input": 2, "high_result": 51.47938616707449, "low_input": 0, "low_result": 47.29010924843962, "swing": 4.189276918634867 }, { "field": "fixed_om_per_kw_year", "high_input": 19.2, "high_result": 51.64894078809391, "low_input": 12.8, "low_result": 48.38961897085031, "swing": 3.2593218172436025 }, { "field": "fuel_price_per_mwh_th", "high_input": 0.0, "high_result": 50.019279879472116, "low_input": 0, "low_result": 50.019279879472116, "swing": 0.0 }, { "field": "carbon_price_per_t", "high_input": 60.0, "high_result": 50.019279879472116, "low_input": 40.0, "low_result": 50.019279879472116, "swing": 0.0 } ], "spread_pct": 20 }, "uncertainty": { "histogram": [ { "count": 1, "lower": 38.497720115259, "upper": 40.13447363875962 }, { "count": 3, "lower": 40.13447363875962, "upper": 41.771227162260246 }, { "count": 5, "lower": 41.771227162260246, "upper": 43.40798068576086 }, { "count": 9, "lower": 43.40798068576086, "upper": 45.044734209261485 }, { "count": 11, "lower": 45.044734209261485, "upper": 46.68148773276211 }, { "count": 13, "lower": 46.68148773276211, "upper": 48.31824125626272 }, { "count": 12, "lower": 48.31824125626272, "upper": 49.95499477976335 }, { "count": 19, "lower": 49.95499477976335, "upper": 51.59174830326397 }, { "count": 14, "lower": 51.59174830326397, "upper": 53.22850182676459 }, { "count": 7, "lower": 53.22850182676459, "upper": 54.865255350265215 }, { "count": 7, "lower": 54.865255350265215, "upper": 56.50200887376583 }, { "count": 10, "lower": 56.50200887376583, "upper": 58.138762397266454 }, { "count": 3, "lower": 58.138762397266454, "upper": 59.77551592076708 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 59.77551592076708, "upper": 61.41226944426769 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 61.41226944426769, "upper": 63.049022967768316 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 63.049022967768316, "upper": 64.68577649126894 } ], "interpretation": "Synthetic independent triangular input distributions, not calibrated probabilities. P90 is the 90th percentile of modeled cost, not a P90 energy-yield estimate.", "p10": 43.62082780214109, "p50": 50.35468416481584, "p90": 57.718437341182494, "samples": 120, "seed": 42, "spread_pct": 20 } }, { "forecast": { "annual_capex_change_pct": -2, "interpretation": "Hypothetical future commissioning cohorts in the same price-year currency. Only plant capex changes; not a commodity forecast or a learning-curve estimate.", "rows": [ { "capex_per_kw": 1500.0, "lcoe_per_mwh": 54.82815892378408, "year": 2027 }, { "capex_per_kw": 1470.0, "lcoe_per_mwh": 53.986840308723615, "year": 2028 }, { "capex_per_kw": 1440.6, "lcoe_per_mwh": 53.16234806596436, "year": 2029 }, { "capex_per_kw": 1411.7879999999998, "lcoe_per_mwh": 52.35434566806028, "year": 2030 }, { "capex_per_kw": 1383.5522399999998, "lcoe_per_mwh": 51.562503318114295, "year": 2031 }, { "capex_per_kw": 1355.8811951999999, "lcoe_per_mwh": 50.78649781516722, "year": 2032 }, { "capex_per_kw": 1328.7635712959998, "lcoe_per_mwh": 50.026012422279095, "year": 2033 }, { "capex_per_kw": 1302.1882998700798, "lcoe_per_mwh": 49.28073673724873, "year": 2034 }, { "capex_per_kw": 1276.1445338726783, "lcoe_per_mwh": 48.55036656591897, "year": 2035 }, { "capex_per_kw": 1250.6216431952246, "lcoe_per_mwh": 47.834603798015806, "year": 2036 }, { "capex_per_kw": 1225.6092103313201, "lcoe_per_mwh": 47.13315628547071, "year": 2037 } ] }, "id": "case-2", "result": { "breakdown": [ { "category": "capital", "npv": 150000000.0, "per_mwh": 41.84974065130768 }, { "category": "fixed_om", "npv": 45743036.77445383, "per_mwh": 12.762228170760817 }, { "category": "variable_om", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "fuel", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "carbon", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "capture", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "storage", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "end_of_life", "npv": 774879.7185514738, "per_mwh": 0.21619010171558312 } ], "cashflows": [ { "calendar_year": 2026, "captured_t": 0, "costs": { "capital": 150000000.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 0.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 0, "discount_factor": 1.0, "discounted_cost": 150000000.0, "discounted_energy_mwh": 0.0, "emissions_t": 0, "generated_mwh": 0, "period": 0, 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"captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 4200000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 333469.3104288, "discount_factor": 0.7628952120475251, "discounted_cost": 3204159.890599605, "discounted_energy_mwh": 254402.14029092135, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 340274.80656, "period": 4, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 4200000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2030, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 4200000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 332802.3718079424, "discount_factor": 0.7129861794836683, "discounted_cost": 2994541.953831407, "discounted_energy_mwh": 237283.4915984481, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 339594.25694688, "period": 5, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 4200000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2031, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, 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329547.8300875094, "period": 20, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 4200000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2046, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 4200000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 322310.9597387877, "discount_factor": 0.2415130867419331, "discounted_cost": 1014354.964316119, "discounted_energy_mwh": 77842.31477726954, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 328888.7344273344, "period": 21, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 4200000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2047, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 4200000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 321666.33781931014, "discount_factor": 0.2257131651793767, "discounted_cost": 947995.2937533822, "discounted_energy_mwh": 72604.32724085513, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 328230.9569584797, "period": 22, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 4200000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2048, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 4200000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 321023.0051436715, "discount_factor": 0.2109468833452119, "discounted_cost": 885976.9100498899, "discounted_energy_mwh": 67718.80241717142, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 327574.49504456273, "period": 23, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 4200000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2049, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 4200000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 320380.95913338417, "discount_factor": 0.19714661994879612, "discounted_cost": 828015.8037849437, "discounted_energy_mwh": 63162.023189100066, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 326919.34605447366, "period": 24, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 4200000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2050, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 4200000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 319740.1972151174, "discount_factor": 0.18424917752223938, "discounted_cost": 773846.5455934054, "discounted_energy_mwh": 58911.86835768399, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 326265.5073623647, "period": 25, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 4200000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2051, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 4500000.0, "fixed_om": 4200000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 319100.7168206872, "discount_factor": 0.17219549301143863, "discounted_cost": 1498100.7891995162, "discounted_energy_mwh": 54947.7052532417, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 325612.97634764, "period": 26, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 8700000.0 } ], "currency": "USD", "emissions_t_per_delivered_mwh": 0.0, "first_year_energy_mwh": 334807.2, "initial_capital": 150000000.0, "input_hash": "693ee742b90510ddde7dbd87fcd3a4f596951b9081f1f74360efd5205417feb1", "lcoe_per_kwh": 0.05482815892378408, "lcoe_per_mwh": 54.82815892378408, "lifetime_emissions_t": 0.0, "lifetime_energy_mwh": 8172342.306477099, "model_version": "0.1.0rc1", "npv_cost": 196517916.4930053, "npv_energy_mwh": 3584251.6026515197, "price_year": 2026, "warnings": [ "Assumptions are user-supplied or synthetic; results are not market forecasts.", "LCOE excludes system value, hourly dispatch, taxes, debt schedules and financing fees.", "Operating emissions only: this is not a lifecycle carbon assessment." ] }, "scenario": { "availability_pct": 100.0, "capacity_factor_pct": 39.0, "capacity_mw": 100.0, "capex_per_kw": 1500.0, "capture_capex_per_kw": 0.0, "capture_om_per_t": 0.0, "capture_pct": 0.0, "capture_penalty_pct": 0.0, "carbon_escalation_pct": 0.0, "carbon_price_per_t": 50.0, "commission_year": 2027, "construction_years": 1, "currency": "USD", "curtailment_pct": 2.0, "decommission_pct": 3.0, "degradation_pct": 0.2, "discount_rate_pct": 7.0, "emissions_t_per_mwh": 0.0, "fixed_om_per_kw_year": 42.0, "fuel_escalation_pct": 0.0, "fuel_price_per_mwh_th": 0.0, "heat_rate": 0.0, "life_years": 25, "name": "Wind reference", "om_escalation_pct": 0.0, "price_year": 2026, "provenance": "Synthetic demonstration assumptions; not market estimates.", "region": "Illustrative region", "salvage_pct": 0.0, "storage_capex_per_kwh": 200.0, "storage_cycles_per_year": 300.0, "storage_efficiency_pct": 88.0, "storage_life_years": 12, "storage_mwh": 0.0, "storage_om_pct": 1.5, "technology": "Onshore wind", "variable_om_per_mwh": 0.0 }, "sensitivity": { "baseline": 54.82815892378408, "drivers": [ { "field": "capacity_factor_pct", "high_input": 46.8, "high_result": 45.690132436486735, "low_input": 31.200000000000003, "low_result": 68.5351986547301, "swing": 22.84506621824336 }, { "field": "capex_per_kw", "high_input": 1800.0, "high_result": 63.24134507438873, "low_input": 1200.0, "low_result": 46.41497277317943, "swing": 16.826372301209304 }, { "field": "discount_rate_pct", "high_input": 8.4, "high_result": 60.745553141756844, "low_input": 5.6000000000000005, "low_result": 49.31888365815953, "swing": 11.426669483597315 }, { "field": "fixed_om_per_kw_year", "high_input": 50.4, "high_result": 57.380604557936245, "low_input": 33.6, "low_result": 52.275713289631916, "swing": 5.104891268304328 }, { "field": "construction_years", "high_input": 2, "high_result": 56.29289984657985, "low_input": 0, "low_result": 52.09032542323124, "swing": 4.202574423348608 }, { "field": "fuel_price_per_mwh_th", "high_input": 0.0, "high_result": 54.82815892378408, "low_input": 0, "low_result": 54.82815892378408, "swing": 0.0 }, { "field": "carbon_price_per_t", "high_input": 60.0, "high_result": 54.82815892378408, "low_input": 40.0, "low_result": 54.82815892378408, "swing": 0.0 } ], "spread_pct": 20 }, "uncertainty": { "histogram": [ { "count": 1, "lower": 42.745644434402294, "upper": 44.48331847844096 }, { "count": 4, "lower": 44.48331847844096, "upper": 46.22099252247962 }, { "count": 7, "lower": 46.22099252247962, "upper": 47.95866656651829 }, { "count": 7, "lower": 47.95866656651829, "upper": 49.69634061055695 }, { "count": 11, "lower": 49.69634061055695, "upper": 51.434014654595615 }, { "count": 14, "lower": 51.434014654595615, "upper": 53.171688698634284 }, { "count": 14, "lower": 53.171688698634284, "upper": 54.90936274267295 }, { "count": 15, "lower": 54.90936274267295, "upper": 56.64703678671161 }, { "count": 15, "lower": 56.64703678671161, "upper": 58.38471083075027 }, { "count": 6, "lower": 58.38471083075027, "upper": 60.122384874788935 }, { "count": 8, "lower": 60.122384874788935, "upper": 61.860058918827605 }, { "count": 8, "lower": 61.860058918827605, "upper": 63.59773296286627 }, { "count": 4, "lower": 63.59773296286627, "upper": 65.33540700690493 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 65.33540700690493, "upper": 67.0730810509436 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 67.0730810509436, "upper": 68.81075509498226 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 68.81075509498226, "upper": 70.54842913902093 } ], "interpretation": "Synthetic independent triangular input distributions, not calibrated probabilities. P90 is the 90th percentile of modeled cost, not a P90 energy-yield estimate.", "p10": 48.18310299340478, "p50": 54.960466235684734, "p90": 62.8538164428637, "samples": 120, "seed": 42, "spread_pct": 20 } }, { "forecast": { "annual_capex_change_pct": -2, "interpretation": "Hypothetical future commissioning cohorts in the same price-year currency. Only plant capex changes; not a commodity forecast or a learning-curve estimate.", "rows": [ { "capex_per_kw": 3400.0, "lcoe_per_mwh": 103.9831984763789, "year": 2027 }, { "capex_per_kw": 3332.0, "lcoe_per_mwh": 102.42313610014641, "year": 2028 }, { "capex_per_kw": 3265.3599999999997, "lcoe_per_mwh": 100.89427497143853, "year": 2029 }, { "capex_per_kw": 3200.0528, "lcoe_per_mwh": 99.39599106530486, "year": 2030 }, { "capex_per_kw": 3136.0517439999994, "lcoe_per_mwh": 97.92767283729383, "year": 2031 }, { "capex_per_kw": 3073.33070912, "lcoe_per_mwh": 96.48872097384302, "year": 2032 }, { "capex_per_kw": 3011.8640949375995, "lcoe_per_mwh": 95.07854814766124, "year": 2033 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2951.6268130388476, "lcoe_per_mwh": 93.69657877800309, "year": 2034 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2892.5942767780707, "lcoe_per_mwh": 92.34224879573812, "year": 2035 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2834.7423912425093, "lcoe_per_mwh": 91.01500541311842, "year": 2036 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2778.0475434176587, "lcoe_per_mwh": 89.71430689815111, "year": 2037 } ] }, "id": "case-3", "result": { "breakdown": [ { "category": "capital", "npv": 318242058.98622876, "per_mwh": 77.73594136523126 }, { "category": "fixed_om", "npv": 106359476.70964319, "per_mwh": 25.980079664753802 }, { "category": "variable_om", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "fuel", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "carbon", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "capture", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "storage", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "end_of_life", "npv": 1093793.9280309456, "per_mwh": 0.2671774463938436 } ], "cashflows": [ { "calendar_year": 2024, "captured_t": 0, "costs": { "capital": 113333333.33333333, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 0.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 0, "discount_factor": 1.0, "discounted_cost": 113333333.33333333, "discounted_energy_mwh": 0.0, "emissions_t": 0, "generated_mwh": 0, "period": 0, 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"captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 10500000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 395105.23709990334, "discount_factor": 0.18424917752223938, "discounted_cost": 1934616.3639835133, "discounted_energy_mwh": 72797.81497038656, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 403168.6092856157, "period": 25, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 10500000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2049, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 10500000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 394315.02662570355, "discount_factor": 0.17219549301143863, "discounted_cost": 1808052.6766201057, "discounted_energy_mwh": 67899.27041163157, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 402362.27206704445, "period": 26, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 10500000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2050, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 10500000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 393526.3965724522, "discount_factor": 0.16093036730040994, "discounted_cost": 1689768.8566543043, "discounted_energy_mwh": 63330.34754281152, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 401557.5475229104, "period": 27, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 10500000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2051, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 10500000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 392739.34377930727, "discount_factor": 0.15040221243028964, "discounted_cost": 1579223.2305180412, "discounted_energy_mwh": 59068.866212827925, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 400754.4324278646, "period": 28, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 10500000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2052, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 10500000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 391953.86509174865, "discount_factor": 0.14056281535541088, "discounted_cost": 1475909.561231814, "discounted_energy_mwh": 55094.13876673109, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 399952.92356300884, "period": 29, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 10500000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2053, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 10500000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 391169.95736156515, "discount_factor": 0.1313671171545896, "discounted_cost": 1379354.730123191, "discounted_energy_mwh": 51386.86961607255, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 399153.0177158828, "period": 30, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 10500000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2054, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 10500000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 390387.617446842, "discount_factor": 0.12277300668653232, "discounted_cost": 1289116.5702085893, "discounted_energy_mwh": 47929.061567140554, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 398354.71168045106, "period": 31, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 10500000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2055, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 10500000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 389606.8422119483, "discount_factor": 0.11474112774442273, "discounted_cost": 1204781.8413164387, "discounted_energy_mwh": 44703.92845234231, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 397558.0022570901, "period": 32, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 10500000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2056, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 10200000.0, "fixed_om": 10500000.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 388827.6285275244, "discount_factor": 0.10723469882656328, "discounted_cost": 2219758.2657098603, "discounted_energy_mwh": 41695.81364059591, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 396762.88625257596, "period": 33, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 20700000.0 } ], "currency": "USD", "emissions_t_per_delivered_mwh": 0.0, "first_year_energy_mwh": 412070.39999999997, "initial_capital": 340000000.0, "input_hash": "1895c84ee90ddfae62c42508bb31b432775d83d429f3bed5cb3e57c652d3db2b", "lcoe_per_kwh": 0.10398319847637891, "lcoe_per_mwh": 103.9831984763789, "lifetime_emissions_t": 0.0, "lifetime_energy_mwh": 12010213.364765288, "model_version": "0.1.0rc1", "npv_cost": 425695329.6239029, "npv_energy_mwh": 4093885.7032812373, "price_year": 2026, "warnings": [ "Assumptions are user-supplied or synthetic; results are not market forecasts.", "LCOE excludes system value, hourly dispatch, taxes, debt schedules and financing fees.", "Operating emissions only: this is not a lifecycle carbon assessment." ] }, "scenario": { "availability_pct": 100.0, "capacity_factor_pct": 48.0, "capacity_mw": 100.0, "capex_per_kw": 3400.0, "capture_capex_per_kw": 0.0, "capture_om_per_t": 0.0, "capture_pct": 0.0, "capture_penalty_pct": 0.0, "carbon_escalation_pct": 0.0, "carbon_price_per_t": 50.0, "commission_year": 2027, "construction_years": 3, "currency": "USD", "curtailment_pct": 2.0, "decommission_pct": 3.0, "degradation_pct": 0.2, "discount_rate_pct": 7.0, "emissions_t_per_mwh": 0.0, "fixed_om_per_kw_year": 105.0, "fuel_escalation_pct": 0.0, "fuel_price_per_mwh_th": 0.0, "heat_rate": 0.0, "life_years": 30, "name": "Offshore reference", "om_escalation_pct": 0.0, "price_year": 2026, "provenance": "Synthetic demonstration assumptions; not market estimates.", "region": "Illustrative region", "salvage_pct": 0.0, "storage_capex_per_kwh": 200.0, "storage_cycles_per_year": 300.0, "storage_efficiency_pct": 88.0, "storage_life_years": 12, "storage_mwh": 0.0, "storage_om_pct": 1.5, "technology": "Offshore wind", "variable_om_per_mwh": 0.0 }, "sensitivity": { "baseline": 103.9831984763789, "drivers": [ { "field": "capacity_factor_pct", "high_input": 57.599999999999994, "high_result": 86.65266539698241, "low_input": 38.400000000000006, "low_result": 129.9789980954736, "swing": 43.326332698491186 }, { "field": "capex_per_kw", "high_input": 4080.0, "high_result": 119.5838222387039, "low_input": 2720.0, "low_result": 88.38257471405387, "swing": 31.20124752465003 }, { "field": "discount_rate_pct", "high_input": 8.4, "high_result": 117.34718369402795, "low_input": 5.6000000000000005, "low_result": 91.80282851718957, "swing": 25.54435517683838 }, { "field": "fixed_om_per_kw_year", "high_input": 126.0, "high_result": 109.17921440932965, "low_input": 84.0, "low_result": 98.78718254342813, "swing": 10.392031865901515 }, { "field": "construction_years", "high_input": 4, "high_result": 106.76527059048658, "low_input": 2, "low_result": 101.32582812083474, "swing": 5.439442469651837 }, { "field": "fuel_price_per_mwh_th", "high_input": 0.0, "high_result": 103.9831984763789, "low_input": 0, "low_result": 103.9831984763789, "swing": 0.0 }, { "field": "carbon_price_per_t", "high_input": 60.0, "high_result": 103.9831984763789, "low_input": 40.0, "low_result": 103.9831984763789, "swing": 0.0 } ], "spread_pct": 20 }, "uncertainty": { "histogram": [ { "count": 1, "lower": 81.32186741134319, "upper": 84.5912477526469 }, { "count": 4, "lower": 84.5912477526469, "upper": 87.8606280939506 }, { "count": 7, "lower": 87.8606280939506, "upper": 91.13000843525431 }, { "count": 7, "lower": 91.13000843525431, "upper": 94.39938877655801 }, { "count": 12, "lower": 94.39938877655801, "upper": 97.66876911786171 }, { "count": 12, "lower": 97.66876911786171, "upper": 100.93814945916543 }, { "count": 18, "lower": 100.93814945916543, "upper": 104.20752980046913 }, { "count": 12, "lower": 104.20752980046913, "upper": 107.47691014177283 }, { "count": 15, "lower": 107.47691014177283, "upper": 110.74629048307654 }, { "count": 8, "lower": 110.74629048307654, "upper": 114.01567082438024 }, { "count": 6, "lower": 114.01567082438024, "upper": 117.28505116568395 }, { "count": 8, "lower": 117.28505116568395, "upper": 120.55443150698765 }, { "count": 4, "lower": 120.55443150698765, "upper": 123.82381184829136 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 123.82381184829136, "upper": 127.09319218959507 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 127.09319218959507, "upper": 130.36257253089877 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 130.36257253089877, "upper": 133.63195287220248 } ], "interpretation": "Synthetic independent triangular input distributions, not calibrated probabilities. P90 is the 90th percentile of modeled cost, not a P90 energy-yield estimate.", "p10": 91.58321662611255, "p50": 104.14214872310022, "p90": 119.04663021601418, "samples": 120, "seed": 42, "spread_pct": 20 } }, { "forecast": { "annual_capex_change_pct": -2, "interpretation": "Hypothetical future commissioning cohorts in the same price-year currency. Only plant capex changes; not a commodity forecast or a learning-curve estimate.", "rows": [ { "capex_per_kw": 1050.0, "lcoe_per_mwh": 90.95940901098069, "year": 2027 }, { "capex_per_kw": 1029.0, "lcoe_per_mwh": 90.66302187446624, "year": 2028 }, { "capex_per_kw": 1008.42, "lcoe_per_mwh": 90.37256248068208, "year": 2029 }, { "capex_per_kw": 988.2515999999999, "lcoe_per_mwh": 90.08791227477357, "year": 2030 }, { "capex_per_kw": 968.4865679999999, "lcoe_per_mwh": 89.80895507298327, "year": 2031 }, { "capex_per_kw": 949.11683664, "lcoe_per_mwh": 89.53557701522875, "year": 2032 }, { "capex_per_kw": 930.1344999071999, "lcoe_per_mwh": 89.26766651862933, "year": 2033 }, { "capex_per_kw": 911.5318099090559, "lcoe_per_mwh": 89.0051142319619, "year": 2034 }, { "capex_per_kw": 893.3011737108748, "lcoe_per_mwh": 88.74781299102781, "year": 2035 }, { "capex_per_kw": 875.4351502366573, "lcoe_per_mwh": 88.4956577749124, "year": 2036 }, { "capex_per_kw": 857.926447231924, "lcoe_per_mwh": 88.24854566311932, "year": 2037 } ] }, "id": "case-4", "result": { "breakdown": [ { "category": "capital", "npv": 105000000.0, "per_mwh": 14.764974615905656 }, { "category": "fixed_om", "npv": 30152810.352444123, "per_mwh": 4.240052185257665 }, { "category": "variable_om", "npv": 24889985.222467527, "per_mwh": 3.4999999999999996 }, { "category": "fuel", "npv": 358415787.2035326, "per_mwh": 50.40000000000002 }, { "category": "carbon", "npv": 128005638.28697594, "per_mwh": 18.000000000000007 }, { "category": "capture", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "storage", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "end_of_life", "npv": 386734.9710625768, "per_mwh": 0.05438220981735195 } ], "cashflows": [ { "calendar_year": 2026, "captured_t": 0, "costs": { "capital": 105000000.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 0.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 0, "discount_factor": 1.0, "discounted_cost": 105000000.0, "discounted_energy_mwh": 0.0, "emissions_t": 0, "generated_mwh": 0, "period": 0, "phase": "construction", "total_cost": 105000000.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2027, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 11037600.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 2600000.0, "fuel": 30905280.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2146200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 613200.0, "discount_factor": 0.8734387282732116, "discounted_cost": 40780050.65944624, "discounted_energy_mwh": 535592.6281771334, "emissions_t": 220752.0, "generated_mwh": 613200.0, "period": 2, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 46689080.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2028, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 11037600.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 2600000.0, "fuel": 30905280.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2146200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 613200.0, "discount_factor": 0.8162978768908519, "discounted_cost": 38112196.87798714, "discounted_energy_mwh": 500553.8581094704, "emissions_t": 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0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 11037600.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 2600000.0, "fuel": 30905280.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2146200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 613200.0, "discount_factor": 0.444011959240735, "discounted_cost": 20730509.885947417, "discounted_energy_mwh": 272268.1334064187, "emissions_t": 220752.0, "generated_mwh": 613200.0, "period": 12, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 46689080.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2038, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 11037600.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 2600000.0, "fuel": 30905280.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2146200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 613200.0, "discount_factor": 0.41496444788853737, "discounted_cost": 19374308.304623753, "discounted_energy_mwh": 254456.1994452511, "emissions_t": 220752.0, "generated_mwh": 613200.0, "period": 13, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 46689080.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2039, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, 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0.17219549301143863, "discounted_cost": 8039649.1488505, "discounted_energy_mwh": 105590.27631461417, "emissions_t": 220752.0, "generated_mwh": 613200.0, "period": 26, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 46689080.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2052, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 11037600.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 2600000.0, "fuel": 30905280.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2146200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 613200.0, "discount_factor": 0.16093036730040994, "discounted_cost": 7513690.793318224, "discounted_energy_mwh": 98682.50122861138, "emissions_t": 220752.0, "generated_mwh": 613200.0, "period": 27, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 46689080.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2053, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 11037600.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 2600000.0, "fuel": 30905280.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2146200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 613200.0, "discount_factor": 0.15040221243028964, "discounted_cost": 7022140.9283347875, "discounted_energy_mwh": 92226.63666225362, "emissions_t": 220752.0, "generated_mwh": 613200.0, "period": 28, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 46689080.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2054, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 11037600.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 2600000.0, "fuel": 30905280.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2146200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 613200.0, "discount_factor": 0.14056281535541088, "discounted_cost": 6562748.531154007, "discounted_energy_mwh": 86193.11837593795, "emissions_t": 220752.0, "generated_mwh": 613200.0, "period": 29, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 46689080.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2055, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 11037600.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 2600000.0, "fuel": 30905280.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2146200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 613200.0, "discount_factor": 0.1313671171545896, "discounted_cost": 6133409.842200006, "discounted_energy_mwh": 80554.31623919435, "emissions_t": 220752.0, "generated_mwh": 613200.0, "period": 30, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 46689080.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2056, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 11037600.0, "end_of_life": 3150000.0, "fixed_om": 2600000.0, "fuel": 30905280.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2146200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 613200.0, "discount_factor": 0.12277300668653232, "discounted_cost": 6118893.702090619, "discounted_energy_mwh": 75284.40770018162, "emissions_t": 220752.0, "generated_mwh": 613200.0, "period": 31, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 49839080.0 } ], "currency": "USD", "emissions_t_per_delivered_mwh": 0.36, "first_year_energy_mwh": 613200.0, "initial_capital": 105000000.0, "input_hash": "2afc463af3a034e01b85c1b3804b6f8dbc70edeecdc4a1876ead0208239e5e4e", "lcoe_per_kwh": 0.0909594090109807, "lcoe_per_mwh": 90.95940901098069, "lifetime_emissions_t": 6622560.0, "lifetime_energy_mwh": 18396000.0, "model_version": "0.1.0rc1", "npv_cost": 646850956.0364827, "npv_energy_mwh": 7111424.349276437, "price_year": 2026, "warnings": [ "Assumptions are user-supplied or synthetic; results are not market forecasts.", "LCOE excludes system value, hourly dispatch, taxes, debt schedules and financing fees.", "Operating emissions only: this is not a lifecycle carbon assessment." ] }, "scenario": { "availability_pct": 100.0, "capacity_factor_pct": 70.0, "capacity_mw": 100.0, "capex_per_kw": 1050.0, "capture_capex_per_kw": 0.0, "capture_om_per_t": 0.0, "capture_pct": 0.0, "capture_penalty_pct": 0.0, "carbon_escalation_pct": 0.0, "carbon_price_per_t": 50.0, "commission_year": 2027, "construction_years": 1, "currency": "USD", "curtailment_pct": 0.0, "decommission_pct": 3.0, "degradation_pct": 0.0, "discount_rate_pct": 7.0, "emissions_t_per_mwh": 0.36, "fixed_om_per_kw_year": 26.0, "fuel_escalation_pct": 0.0, "fuel_price_per_mwh_th": 28.0, "heat_rate": 1.8, "life_years": 30, "name": "Gas reference", "om_escalation_pct": 0.0, "price_year": 2026, "provenance": "Synthetic demonstration assumptions; not market estimates.", "region": "Illustrative region", "salvage_pct": 0.0, "storage_capex_per_kwh": 200.0, "storage_cycles_per_year": 300.0, "storage_efficiency_pct": 88.0, "storage_life_years": 12, "storage_mwh": 0.0, "storage_om_pct": 1.5, "technology": "Combined-cycle gas", "variable_om_per_mwh": 3.5 }, "sensitivity": { "baseline": 90.95940901098069, "drivers": [ { "field": "fuel_price_per_mwh_th", "high_input": 33.6, "high_result": 101.03940901098068, "low_input": 22.400000000000002, "low_result": 80.87940901098068, "swing": 20.159999999999997 }, { "field": "capacity_factor_pct", "high_input": 84.0, "high_result": 87.78284084248389, "low_input": 56.0, "low_result": 95.72426126372582, "swing": 7.941420421241929 }, { "field": "carbon_price_per_t", "high_input": 60.0, "high_result": 94.5594090109807, "low_input": 40.0, "low_result": 87.35940901098068, "swing": 7.200000000000017 }, { "field": "capex_per_kw", "high_input": 1260.0, "high_result": 93.92328037612529, "low_input": 840.0, "low_result": 87.9955376458361, "swing": 5.9277427302891965 }, { "field": "discount_rate_pct", "high_input": 8.4, "high_result": 93.29616370293097, "low_input": 5.6000000000000005, "low_result": 88.78899777757536, "swing": 4.507165925355608 }, { "field": "fixed_om_per_kw_year", "high_input": 31.2, "high_result": 91.80741944803223, "low_input": 20.8, "low_result": 90.11139857392916, "swing": 1.6960208741030698 }, { "field": "construction_years", "high_input": 2, "high_result": 91.47618312253738, "low_input": 0, "low_result": 89.99347609218312, "swing": 1.4827070303542627 } ], "spread_pct": 20 }, "uncertainty": { "histogram": [ { "count": 2, "lower": 81.37830875542417, "upper": 82.69137035438446 }, { "count": 4, "lower": 82.69137035438446, "upper": 84.00443195334475 }, { "count": 4, "lower": 84.00443195334475, "upper": 85.31749355230505 }, { "count": 8, "lower": 85.31749355230505, "upper": 86.63055515126534 }, { "count": 9, "lower": 86.63055515126534, "upper": 87.94361675022563 }, { "count": 14, "lower": 87.94361675022563, "upper": 89.25667834918592 }, { "count": 5, "lower": 89.25667834918592, "upper": 90.5697399481462 }, { "count": 14, "lower": 90.5697399481462, "upper": 91.88280154710651 }, { "count": 16, "lower": 91.88280154710651, "upper": 93.1958631460668 }, { "count": 13, "lower": 93.1958631460668, "upper": 94.50892474502709 }, { "count": 7, "lower": 94.50892474502709, "upper": 95.82198634398738 }, { "count": 8, "lower": 95.82198634398738, "upper": 97.13504794294766 }, { "count": 7, "lower": 97.13504794294766, "upper": 98.44810954190797 }, { "count": 4, "lower": 98.44810954190797, "upper": 99.76117114086824 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 99.76117114086824, "upper": 101.07423273982855 }, { "count": 3, "lower": 101.07423273982855, "upper": 102.38729433878883 } ], "interpretation": "Synthetic independent triangular input distributions, not calibrated probabilities. P90 is the 90th percentile of modeled cost, not a P90 energy-yield estimate.", "p10": 85.90801959979713, "p50": 91.89697477498727, "p90": 97.53456078023152, "samples": 120, "seed": 42, "spread_pct": 20 } }, { "forecast": { "annual_capex_change_pct": -2, "interpretation": "Hypothetical future commissioning cohorts in the same price-year currency. Only plant capex changes; not a commodity forecast or a learning-curve estimate.", "rows": [ { "capex_per_kw": 6500.0, "lcoe_per_mwh": 102.28678193525123, "year": 2027 }, { "capex_per_kw": 6370.0, "lcoe_per_mwh": 100.78546029959035, "year": 2028 }, { "capex_per_kw": 6242.599999999999, "lcoe_per_mwh": 99.31416509664267, "year": 2029 }, { "capex_per_kw": 6117.748, "lcoe_per_mwh": 97.87229579775396, "year": 2030 }, { "capex_per_kw": 5995.393039999999, "lcoe_per_mwh": 96.459263884843, "year": 2031 }, { "capex_per_kw": 5875.4851792, "lcoe_per_mwh": 95.07449261019029, "year": 2032 }, { "capex_per_kw": 5757.975475615999, "lcoe_per_mwh": 93.71741676103063, "year": 2033 }, { "capex_per_kw": 5642.81596610368, "lcoe_per_mwh": 92.38748242885417, "year": 2034 }, { "capex_per_kw": 5529.959646781605, "lcoe_per_mwh": 91.0841467833212, "year": 2035 }, { "capex_per_kw": 5419.360453845974, "lcoe_per_mwh": 89.80687785069892, "year": 2036 }, { "capex_per_kw": 5310.973244769053, "lcoe_per_mwh": 88.55515429672907, "year": 2037 } ] }, "id": "case-5", "result": { "breakdown": [ { "category": "capital", "npv": 552521388.8943226, "per_mwh": 74.91406569190788 }, { "category": "fixed_om", "npv": 112258790.26012938, "per_mwh": 15.220700152207002 }, { "category": "variable_om", "npv": 22126207.56027151, "per_mwh": 3.0000000000000013 }, { "category": "fuel", "npv": 66378622.680814505, "per_mwh": 9.0 }, { "category": "carbon", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "capture", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "storage", "npv": 0.0, "per_mwh": 0.0 }, { "category": "end_of_life", "npv": 1121179.861661314, "per_mwh": 0.1520160911363461 } ], "cashflows": [ { "calendar_year": 2021, "captured_t": 0, "costs": { "capital": 108333333.33333333, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 0.0, "fuel": 0.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 0.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 0, "discount_factor": 1.0, "discounted_cost": 108333333.33333333, "discounted_energy_mwh": 0.0, 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"costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 12000000.0, "fuel": 7095600.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2365200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 788400.0, "discount_factor": 0.024204283289200795, "discounted_cost": 519443.2828128804, "discounted_energy_mwh": 19082.65694520591, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 788400.0, "period": 55, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 21460800.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2076, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 12000000.0, "fuel": 7095600.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2365200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 788400.0, "discount_factor": 0.022620825503925975, "discounted_cost": 485461.0119746545, "discounted_energy_mwh": 17834.258827295238, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 788400.0, "period": 56, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 21460800.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2077, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, 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0.014087113243786274, "discounted_cost": 302320.7199022485, "discounted_energy_mwh": 11106.280081401099, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 788400.0, "period": 63, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 21460800.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2084, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 12000000.0, "fuel": 7095600.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2365200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 788400.0, "discount_factor": 0.013165526396061937, "discounted_cost": 282542.728880606, "discounted_energy_mwh": 10379.701010655232, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 788400.0, "period": 64, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 21460800.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2085, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 0.0, "fixed_om": 12000000.0, "fuel": 7095600.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2365200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 788400.0, "discount_factor": 0.012304230276693397, "discounted_cost": 264058.62512206164, "discounted_energy_mwh": 9700.655150145074, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 788400.0, "period": 65, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 21460800.0 }, { "calendar_year": 2086, "captured_t": 0.0, "costs": { "capital": 0.0, "capture": 0.0, "carbon": 0.0, "end_of_life": 97500000.0, "fixed_om": 12000000.0, "fuel": 7095600.0, "storage": 0.0, "variable_om": 2365200.0 }, "delivered_mwh": 788400.0, "discount_factor": 0.011499280632423734, "discounted_cost": 1367963.6234576334, "discounted_energy_mwh": 9066.032850602873, "emissions_t": 0.0, "generated_mwh": 788400.0, "period": 66, "phase": "operation", "total_cost": 118960800.0 } ], "currency": "USD", "emissions_t_per_delivered_mwh": 0.0, "first_year_energy_mwh": 788400.0, "initial_capital": 650000000.0, "input_hash": "d7e9c99658a8a5ce308866b2bdfa9fbfd052d445c8fbce039dae1d8efa990ad5", "lcoe_per_kwh": 0.10228678193525123, "lcoe_per_mwh": 102.28678193525123, "lifetime_emissions_t": 0.0, "lifetime_energy_mwh": 47304000.0, "model_version": "0.1.0rc1", "npv_cost": 754406189.2571993, "npv_energy_mwh": 7375402.5200905, "price_year": 2026, "warnings": [ "Assumptions are user-supplied or synthetic; results are not market forecasts.", "LCOE excludes system value, hourly dispatch, taxes, debt schedules and financing fees.", "Operating emissions only: this is not a lifecycle carbon assessment." ] }, "scenario": { "availability_pct": 100.0, "capacity_factor_pct": 90.0, "capacity_mw": 100.0, "capex_per_kw": 6500.0, "capture_capex_per_kw": 0.0, "capture_om_per_t": 0.0, "capture_pct": 0.0, "capture_penalty_pct": 0.0, "carbon_escalation_pct": 0.0, "carbon_price_per_t": 50.0, "commission_year": 2027, "construction_years": 6, "currency": "USD", "curtailment_pct": 0.0, "decommission_pct": 15.0, "degradation_pct": 0.0, "discount_rate_pct": 7.0, "emissions_t_per_mwh": 0.0, "fixed_om_per_kw_year": 120.0, "fuel_escalation_pct": 0.0, "fuel_price_per_mwh_th": 3.0, "heat_rate": 3.0, "life_years": 60, "name": "Nuclear reference", "om_escalation_pct": 0.0, "price_year": 2026, "provenance": "Synthetic demonstration assumptions; not market estimates.", "region": "Illustrative region", "salvage_pct": 0.0, "storage_capex_per_kwh": 200.0, "storage_cycles_per_year": 300.0, "storage_efficiency_pct": 88.0, "storage_life_years": 12, "storage_mwh": 0.0, "storage_om_pct": 1.5, "technology": "Nuclear", "variable_om_per_mwh": 3.0 }, "sensitivity": { "baseline": 102.28678193525123, "drivers": [ { "field": "discount_rate_pct", "high_input": 8.4, "high_result": 120.76016405196249, "low_input": 5.6000000000000005, "low_result": 85.82520484875153, "swing": 34.934959203210965 }, { "field": "capacity_factor_pct", "high_input": 100, "high_result": 93.25810374172612, "low_input": 72.0, "low_result": 124.85847741906403, "swing": 31.600373677337913 }, { "field": "capex_per_kw", "high_input": 7800.0, "high_result": 117.29999829186009, "low_input": 5200.0, "low_result": 87.27356557864239, "swing": 30.0264327132177 }, { "field": "fixed_om_per_kw_year", "high_input": 144.0, "high_result": 105.33092196569262, "low_input": 96.0, "low_result": 99.24264190480983, "swing": 6.088280060882795 }, { "field": "construction_years", "high_input": 7, "high_result": 105.05619225782017, "low_input": 5, "low_result": 99.64343844748507, "swing": 5.412753810335104 }, { "field": "fuel_price_per_mwh_th", "high_input": 3.5999999999999996, "high_result": 104.08678193525121, "low_input": 2.4000000000000004, "low_result": 100.48678193525123, "swing": 3.59999999999998 }, { "field": "carbon_price_per_t", "high_input": 60.0, "high_result": 102.28678193525123, "low_input": 40.0, "low_result": 102.28678193525123, "swing": 0.0 } ], "spread_pct": 20 }, "uncertainty": { "histogram": [ { "count": 3, "lower": 86.61013109510381, "upper": 89.39869490150764 }, { "count": 3, "lower": 89.39869490150764, "upper": 92.18725870791147 }, { "count": 6, "lower": 92.18725870791147, "upper": 94.9758225143153 }, { "count": 12, "lower": 94.9758225143153, "upper": 97.76438632071913 }, { "count": 10, "lower": 97.76438632071913, "upper": 100.55295012712294 }, { "count": 10, "lower": 100.55295012712294, "upper": 103.34151393352677 }, { "count": 10, "lower": 103.34151393352677, "upper": 106.1300777399306 }, { "count": 13, "lower": 106.1300777399306, "upper": 108.91864154633443 }, { "count": 17, "lower": 108.91864154633443, "upper": 111.70720535273826 }, { "count": 10, "lower": 111.70720535273826, "upper": 114.49576915914209 }, { "count": 13, "lower": 114.49576915914209, "upper": 117.2843329655459 }, { "count": 4, "lower": 117.2843329655459, "upper": 120.07289677194973 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 120.07289677194973, "upper": 122.86146057835356 }, { "count": 4, "lower": 122.86146057835356, "upper": 125.65002438475739 }, { "count": 0, "lower": 125.65002438475739, "upper": 128.43858819116122 }, { "count": 3, "lower": 128.43858819116122, "upper": 131.22715199756504 } ], "interpretation": "Synthetic independent triangular input distributions, not calibrated probabilities. P90 is the 90th percentile of modeled cost, not a P90 energy-yield estimate.", "p10": 95.12366879400953, "p50": 106.89513897935532, "p90": 117.88928930291931, "samples": 120, "seed": 42, "spread_pct": 20 } }, { "forecast": { "annual_capex_change_pct": -2, "interpretation": "Hypothetical future commissioning cohorts in the same price-year currency. Only plant capex changes; not a commodity forecast or a learning-curve estimate.", "rows": [ { "capex_per_kw": 2900.0, "lcoe_per_mwh": 67.4522263216662, "year": 2027 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2842.0, "lcoe_per_mwh": 66.331492297516, "year": 2028 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2785.16, "lcoe_per_mwh": 65.23317295384878, "year": 2029 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2729.4568, "lcoe_per_mwh": 64.15681999705491, "year": 2030 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2674.867664, "lcoe_per_mwh": 63.10199409939691, "year": 2031 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2621.37031072, "lcoe_per_mwh": 62.06826471969209, "year": 2032 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2568.9429045056, "lcoe_per_mwh": 61.05520992758134, "year": 2033 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2517.5640464154876, "lcoe_per_mwh": 60.062416231312824, "year": 2034 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2467.212765487178, "lcoe_per_mwh": 59.08947840896966, "year": 2035 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2417.8685101774345, "lcoe_per_mwh": 58.13599934307339, "year": 2036 }, { "capex_per_kw": 2369.5111399738853, "lcoe_per_mwh": 57.20158985849501, 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"944e494b48cdf2e0b8fc982de33f3eabf96db8d27b329c3a61b41f0ca67617d0", "lcoe_per_kwh": 0.0674522263216662, "lcoe_per_mwh": 67.4522263216662, "lifetime_emissions_t": 0.0, "lifetime_energy_mwh": 26280000.0, "model_version": "0.1.0rc1", "npv_cost": 316429573.7035106, "npv_energy_mwh": 4691165.747362008, "price_year": 2026, "warnings": [ "Assumptions are user-supplied or synthetic; results are not market forecasts.", "LCOE excludes system value, hourly dispatch, taxes, debt schedules and financing fees.", "Operating emissions only: this is not a lifecycle carbon assessment." ] }, "scenario": { "availability_pct": 100.0, "capacity_factor_pct": 50.0, "capacity_mw": 100.0, "capex_per_kw": 2900.0, "capture_capex_per_kw": 0.0, "capture_om_per_t": 0.0, "capture_pct": 0.0, "capture_penalty_pct": 0.0, "carbon_escalation_pct": 0.0, "carbon_price_per_t": 50.0, "commission_year": 2027, "construction_years": 4, "currency": "USD", "curtailment_pct": 0.0, "decommission_pct": 3.0, "degradation_pct": 0.0, 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"upper": 56.37792621441652 }, { "count": 5, "lower": 56.37792621441652, "upper": 58.57883228502181 }, { "count": 9, "lower": 58.57883228502181, "upper": 60.77973835562711 }, { "count": 11, "lower": 60.77973835562711, "upper": 62.98064442623241 }, { "count": 13, "lower": 62.98064442623241, "upper": 65.1815504968377 }, { "count": 13, "lower": 65.1815504968377, "upper": 67.382456567443 }, { "count": 18, "lower": 67.382456567443, "upper": 69.5833626380483 }, { "count": 14, "lower": 69.5833626380483, "upper": 71.7842687086536 }, { "count": 7, "lower": 71.7842687086536, "upper": 73.9851747792589 }, { "count": 7, "lower": 73.9851747792589, "upper": 76.1860808498642 }, { "count": 9, "lower": 76.1860808498642, "upper": 78.3869869204695 }, { "count": 4, "lower": 78.3869869204695, "upper": 80.5878929910748 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 80.5878929910748, "upper": 82.78879906168008 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 82.78879906168008, "upper": 84.98970513228538 }, { "count": 2, "lower": 84.98970513228538, "upper": 87.19061120289068 } ], "interpretation": "Synthetic independent triangular input distributions, not calibrated probabilities. P90 is the 90th percentile of modeled cost, not a P90 energy-yield estimate.", "p10": 58.82647577745591, "p50": 67.87564758851923, "p90": 77.75851181566235, "samples": 120, "seed": 42, "spread_pct": 20 } } ], "schema_version": 1 }